Weekly Commentary and Statistics
The Japanese Economy: Recovery or Sclerosis? By Tanweer Akram, Ph.D., Senior Economist, Global Rates
China's Challenges: Problems and Prospects By Tanweer Akram, Global Rates, Fixed Income
The Chinese Economy, Policy Issues and Prospects By Tanweer Akram
Economic Notes: U.S. Economy Continuing on a Recovery Trajectory By Gene Lancaric
Economic Notes: Mixed data surprise forecasters, but continue to point toward recovery By Gene Lancaric
Economic Notes: A U.S. recovery has begun, but markets are grappling with its likely strength and composition. By Gene Lancaric
Economic Notes: Mixed Data Point to Continued Recovery By Gene Lancaric
Economic Notes: Recent Data Weaker than Forecast, but Still Point to Recovery By Gene Lancaric
Economic Notes: FOMC Acknowledges an End to Recession amidst Mixed Near-Term Data By Gene Lancaric
Economic Notes: Continuing Signs of Economic Recovery By Gene Lancaric
Economic Notes: Further Signs of Economic Recovery By Gene Lancaric
Economic Notes: U.S. Economy Beginning to Recover By Gene Lancaric
Market Perspective - Economy Rebounding, but Long-Term Challenges Remain By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis
Ominous Omens From The Oracle By Jim Griffin, Economic Advisor
Economic Notes: Manufacturing data positive; unemployment still a concern. By Nora Omarova, Senior Quantitative Analyst
U.S. Economy “Leveling Out” At The Bottom By Jim Griffin, Economic Advisor
Economic Notes: Initial jobless claims increased modestly in the week ending August 7, compared with forecasts for a small decline. By Eugene Lancaric, CFA , Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Retail sales declined in July, both on a total basis and excluding vehicles. By Eugene Lancaric, CFA , Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announced that it intends to maintain its current policy stance largely unchanged. By Eugene Lancaric, CFA , Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: The U.S. trade deficit widened less than forecast in June, as both exports and imports increased. By Eugene Lancaric, CFA , Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Non-farm productivity rose sharply, and more than forecast, in the second quarter. By Eugene Lancaric, CFA , Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell more than forecast in the week ending July 31, falling both before and after seasonal adjustment. By Eugene Lancaric, CFA , Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: non-farm payrolls fell materially less than expected in July and that the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined. By Eugene Lancaric, CFA , Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: ISM Non-Manufacturing Survey Results, July 2009 By Nora Omarova, Senior Quantitative Analyst
Economic Notes: The July ADP employment report showed slightly greater than expected job declines, although job losses were more moderate than in previous months. By Nora Omarova, Senior Quantitative Analyst
Economic Notes: Pending Home Sales, June 2009 By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Personal Income, June 2009 By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
The Economists Who Didn’t Cry Wolf By Jim Griffin, Economic Advisor
Economic Notes: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index increased more than forecast in July, with strength in virtually all components. By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: The 2Q09 GDP Advance Report By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Initial Jobless Claims, week ending July 24, 2009 By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Durable Goods Orders, June 2009 By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: The Case-Shiller Home Price Index increased in May vs. expectations for a modest further decline, the first monthly increase in nearly three years. By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: New home sales rose significantly more than forecast in June, and sales for May were revised higher. By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
“Exit Strategies”: Political, Not Technical Issues By Jim Griffin, Economic Advisor
Economic Notes: The University of Michigan consumer confidence index for July was above the preliminary July reading and modestly above consensus forecasts, but still showed a decline from May and June levels. By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Existing home sales increased for the third consecutive month in June, and were above consensus forecasts. By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Initial unemployment insurance claims increased essentially as forecast in the week ending July 17. By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Less Bad Conditions, Yes, But… No Change in Monetary Policy Attitudes By Jim Griffin, Economic Advisor
Economic Notes: Housing starts and permits rose more than forecast in June, with particular strength in single-family starts. By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Initial Jobless Claims, week ending July 10, 2009 By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: The Philadelphia Fed’s business outlook index fell slightly more than expected in July following a dramatic increase the month before. By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: The Consumer Price Index rose modestly more than expected in June on both a headline and a core basis. By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Industrial production fell less than forecast in June, with declines in production in both manufacturing and mining but a weather-driven spike in production at utilities. By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: The Empire State Manufacturing Index rose more than expected in July, with the current conditions index rising nearly to the zero mark. By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Producer Price Index (6/09) rises more than forecast, largely but not entirely due to energy By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Trade deficit (5/09) unexpectedly narrows as exports grow and imports decline By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Consumer confidence (Michigan preliminary survey, 7/09) declines more than forecast By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Initial unemployment claims (week of 7/3) fall sharply; continuing claims (week of 6/26) spike By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (6/09) By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Hysteresis And The Conventional Wisdom By Jim Griffin, Economic Advisor
Basel Does A Balancing Act By Jim Griffin, Economic Advisor
Financial Sector Regulatory Reform: Don’t Mix Punishment and Rehabilitation By Jim Griffin, Economic Advisor
Wringing Hands Over “Inevitable Inflation” By Jim Griffin, Economic Advisor
Economic Notes: Non-farm Payrolls (6/09) fall more than forecast; unemployment rate rises to 9.5% By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: ADP Employment Report (6/09) shows greater than expected job losses; April/May declines less severe than first reported By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: ISM Manufacturing Index (6/09) increases as forecast; production index rises over 50 but new orders slip By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Pending Home Sales (5/09) rise slightly vs. forecast for no change By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Case-Shiller Home Price Index (4/09) falls less than expected; moderation evident in regional breakdown By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Consumer Confidence (6/09, Conference Board) falls unexpectedly By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Personal income (5/09) rises more than expected on government benefits; savings rate at nearly 7% By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Initial jobless claims (week ending 6/19) rise unexpectedly, continuing claims (week ending 6/12) also above forecasts By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Final GDP report (1Q09) shows slightly less severe decline By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: FOMC leaves policy unchanged, including asset purchase programs By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: New home sales (5/09) fall more than expected; inventories fall and selling prices rise By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Durable goods orders (5/09) rise vs. expected decline; shipments and inventories fall By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Existing home sales (5/09) rise less than expected; inventories decline and selling prices rise By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (6/09) increases more than forecast By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Housing starts and permits (5/09) rise more than forecast; activity probably troughed in 1Q By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Producer Price Index (5/09) rises less than forecast; core index falls slightly By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Industrial production (5/09) falls a bit more than forecast; capacity utilization also declines By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: CPI (5/09) rises less than expected on a headline basis; core index up 0.1% as forecast By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Consumer Confidence (Michigan survey; 6/09) By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Flow of Funds data (1Q09) By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Initial jobless claims (week ending 6/5) By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Retail sales (5/09) By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: U.S. trade deficit (4/09) By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Non-Farm Payrolls (5/09) By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Potential GDP: 2% Solution Doesn’t Wash By Jim Griffin, Economic Advisor
Economic Notes: Initial jobless claims (week ending 5/30) By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Non-farm productivity growth (1Q09) By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Threading the Needle Between Risk Aversion and Creditors’ Strike By Jim Griffin, Economic Advisor
U.S. Monetary Policy Retrospective: “By Its Fruits Shall You Know It” By Jim Griffin, Economic Advisor
2009 Market Gets A Do-Over By Jim Griffin, Economic Advisor
Economic Notes: ISM non-manufacturing index (5/09) By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: ADP report (5/09) By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Existing Home Sales (6/09) By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Chicago Area ISM Index (5/2009) By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: GDP first revision (1Q2009) By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Initial JoblessClaims (week ending 5/23) By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: New Home Sales(4/09) By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Durable Goods Orders (4/09) By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Existing Home Sales (4/09) By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Consumer Confidence (Conference Board 5/09) By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Housing Starts and Permits (4/09) By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Initial jobless claims (week ending May 16) By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
Economic Notes: Initial Jobless Claims (week ending 5/9) By Eugene Lancaric, CFA, Multi-Asset Strategies and Solutions Group
